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A commonplace to start with is that deterministic systems can be forecasted, and then all what is uncertain can be compared to dice throwing, and belongs to the world of stochastics. Give somebody a hammer, and everything will seem to him like a nail. However, sorry Mr Gauss, the world may be more complicated. Recalibrating old stochastic models may be patching an inappropriate paradigm.
We now have to forecast when the past offers less relevant experience. The cheap way, which bankers love, consists in Marie-Kondo-ing pre-pandemic data. On the other hand, the mentally blind will choose to ignore the shock and wipe the bad experience from our memories. However, none of these will lead us to any greener pasture. There must be better ways.
In this webinar, we go through a range of ways of worldly re-thinking that may be better suited to new situations. These start with an exploration of the limits of traditional forecasting. Then we examine a set of new methods.
During the pandemic, this very day, and probably long thereafter, a lot is being asked about the ‘new normal’. We cannot ignore that history does rhyme, and that something similar to the Plague of the 1340s did happen from 2020 onwards. We can count, among the damage, as well as numerous poor souls, large chunks of GDPs, but also our old data made obsolete. Let us talk about surviving in this world of ‘new normal’.