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Disclaimer; no part of this presentation constitutes formal engineering or occupational health and safety advice. Attendees are encouraged to refer to the authoritative sources cited such as OSHA for guidance on how to protect employees in the workplace.
The coronavirus outbreak has caused enormous disruption around the world, and has major health and economic implications for almost every business. Logistics disruptions have exposed vulnerabilities in complex international supply chains and, even worse, China has threatened to intentionally cut off supplies of critical items such as rare earths and medications.
The good news is however that, if everybody follows the directions of the CDC, OSHA, and other authoritative sources, coronavirus will be a still-dangerous but manageable nuisance by summer. This is because countermeasures such as hygiene, social distancing, testing and quarantine, personal protective equipment, and so on should reduce its basic reproduction number (R0) to less than 1 if they have not done so already. There will be no curve to flatten because the disease will go into a steady decline and take the seasonal flu (which is stopped by the same countermeasures) with it. OSHA's "Guidance on Preparing Workplaces for COVID-19" can be downloaded from https://www.osha.gov/Publications/OSHA3990.pdf for detailed actionable information for attendees' workplaces; the webinar will provide an executive summary overview.
The COVID-19 crisis has also introduced the need to re-think complex international supply chains that can be and have been interrupted by force majeure, and are now threatened by Chinese control of rare earths, pharmaceutical drugs and intermediates, and personal protective equipment.The good news is however that American industrialists such as Henry Ford addressed successfully the issue of low-cost offshore labor more than 100 years ago, and the same proven techniques are equally workable today. Organizations have meanwhile been forced to use distance education, virtual conferencing, and similar techniques that are often less expensive than on-site activities. If these remote methods prove themselves effective, there is really no reason to go back to the previous methods.
All people in decision making positions with responsibility for reaction to the COVID-19 outbreak, including profit & loss, supply chain, and health and safety.
Attendees will learn the risks and opportunities associated with coronavirus for workplace and business planning purposes. Of particular interest is the likelihood that, if people comply diligently with the instructions from the CDC, OSHA, and similar authoritative sources, the disease is likely to be suppressed by summer (if not sooner) although precautions will still have to be taken to prevent a recurred outbreak. This means an economic turnaround can begin. The webinar will use the Susceptible, Infected, and Recovered (SIR) model to illustrate not only the principle of "flattening the curve," but also the possibility of breaking the curve by reducing the disease's basic reproduction number to less than 1.
Attendees will also gain an overview of OSHA's "Guidance on Preparing Workplaces for COVID-19" as well as other countermeasures that can be taken to protect individuals and groups from the virus. Something as simple as making supermarket aisles one-way (as proposed in Australia) reduces, for example, opportunities for transmission, and curbside pickup probably reduces them even more.
Attendees will also gain information with which to advocate for the reshoring of American manufacturing capability to ensure that vital supply chains cannot be disrupted by force majeure or willful malice, as threatened by China on multiple occasions. Opportunities to reduce costs through continuation of distance education and virtual conferencing even when these are no longer necessary to control the virus will also be discussed.
William A. Levinson, P.E., is the principal of Levinson Productivity Systems, P.C. He is an ASQ Fellow, Certified Quality Engineer, Quality Auditor, Quality Manager, Reliability Engineer and Six Sigma Black Belt. He is also the author of several books on quality, productivity and management, of which the most recent is The Expanded and Annotated My Life and Work: Henry Ford's Universal Code for World-Class Success.